October 2012 Housing Starts in Thunder Bay

Real Estate — November 8, 2012

THUNDER BAY, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Nov. 8, 2012) - Housing starts in Thunder Bay, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 440 units in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)⁽¹⁾ of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 1236 units in October, up from 246 in September.

"With 88 apartment condominium unit starts in October, multi-family starts took a jump pulling up total starts in the year-to-date. Condominium-tenured housing has been discussed widely in the marketplace over the last three years and proponents are currently working on three projects, each with their own advantages," noted Warren Philp, CMHC's Market Analyst for Thunder Bay.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets, which can be quite variable from one month to the next. The multiples segment includes apartments, rows and semi-detached homes.

To combine with the 88 condo units, Thunder Bay saw twenty-one single detached units started in October. This number was one unit better than the ten-year-average for Octobers. Year-to-date total starts have reached 304 units, 44 units behind last year, with 121 of those units being semi-detached, row and or apartment units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

⁽¹⁾ All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

Additional data is available upon request.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data
October / 2011-2012
Thunder Bay, CMA¹			October 2011	October 2012
	Actual
		October - Single-Detached	22	21
		October - Multiples	4	88
		October - Total	26	109
		January to Oct - Single-Detached	162	183
		January to October - Multiples	186	121
		January to October - Total	348	304
			September 2012	October 2012
	SAAR²
		Total	246	1236

Source: CMHC

¹ Census Metropolitan Area

² Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates

Detailed data available upon request.

Contact Information

Market Analysis Contact:
Warren Philp
807-343-2016 or Cell: 807-627-1329
wphilp@cmhc.ca

Media Contact:
Beth Bailey
Consultant, Communications and Marketing
416-218-3355 or Cell: 416-988-4615
bbailey@cmhc.ca