Canadian Economic Outlook

July 4, 2008

Largest declines in operating rates were all tied to export markets

The largest quarter-to-quarter (Q1 08 vs Q4 07) declines in capacity utilization rates among industrial sectors in Canada were all tied to export markets. Non-metallic mineral products (glass and cement) fell 6.7 percentage points and wood products dropped 6.0 percentage points. Both of these were hurt by weak U.S. housing markets.

July 3, 2008

Following rapid rise, oil prices should fall as demand softens

Based on the assumption that the law of supply and demand has not been repealed, we are going to see two things happen to the energy market generally and to oil prices in particular over the near term.

July 2, 2008

Add utilization rates to the list of negative indicators

Statistics Canada has just released capacity utilization rates for first-quarter 2008 for Canadian industry.

June 30, 2008

British Columbia’s economic outlook remains sunny, but could turn cloudy

As it heads into the second half of 2008, the British Columbia economy clearly has plenty of momentum.

June 26, 2008

Canadian housing starts now level with last year

At 221,000 units annualized, the May 2008 report on housing starts from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) shows an increase (+3.3%) versus the month before, but a decline (-6.8%) from May of last year. The overall effect has been to yield an average level of housing starts (227,600 units) through the first five months of this year at almost exactly the same level as during the same period of time last year.

June 26, 2008

Canada’s productivity performance remains weak in first quarter of 2008

In the first quarter of 2008, strong growth of business employment relative to output pushed labour productivity down 0.8% year over year.

June 25, 2008

Crops and energy help, while forestry and autos hinder, Canada's foreign trade

Canada's merchandise trade surplus declined in the latest month, April 2008, to $61.3 billion, on an annualized basis, according to the latest report from Statistics Canada.

June 24, 2008

Québec likely to grow ‘très lentement’ (slowly) into 2009

Entering the second half of this year, it is clear the Québec economy is shifting to a lower gear.

June 23, 2008

U.S. and Canadian growth rates present a conundrum

Economic slowdowns are underway in both the U.S. and Canada. Real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) first-quarter 2008 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures indicate a more serious situation in Canada (-0.3% quarter to quarter annualized) than in the United States ( 0.9%).

June 19, 2008

The "I" word returns..."Inflation" that is

Inflation appears to have displaced global warming as the hottest topic in the news these days. This is probably not a bad thing, since the earth does not seem to be warming as much as some doom-sayers have predicted, while inflation is definitely heating up.

June 18, 2008

Canada's construction starts through May continue to disappoint

CanaData's construction starts statistics, year to date through May 2008, continued to disappoint versus the same period in 2007.

June 17, 2008

Hiring plans for second half of 2008 cool, particularly in construction

At first glance, the most recent (Q3 2008) Manpower Employment Outlook Survey suggests that hiring plans for third-quarter 2008 are “steady.”

June 16, 2008

The three real reasons to stand pat on interest rates

On June 10, 2008, the Bank of Canada (BOC) surprised many analysts by holding its key policy-setting interest rate, the target overnight rate, steady at 3.00%.

June 12, 2008

Victoria hosts hottest economy in Canada

Victoria's economy is definitely on steroids. For the past three months, its year-over-year rate of employment growth of 7% has been faster than any of the other census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in the country.

June 11, 2008

Canada's first-quarter GDP decline was a rare event

First-quarter 2008 real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada was -0.3% (on an annualized basis) versus fourth-quarter 2007. The negative figure was quite a rare event. It was only the third time in the past sixteen years that GDP has declined, on a quarter-to-quarter annualized basis.

June 10, 2008

The bloom on Alberta's economy may have faded, but it hasn't fallen

As the Wild Rose province heads into the second half of the year, employment is growing by 3% year over year, unemployment sits at 3.3% and an unprecedented 72.1% of its working age population (15 years of age and older) has a job.

June 9, 2008

June 2008 Canadian economic outlook table

The table below sets out CanaData's latest forecasts of some of the key statistical series that are used to measure and assess the performance of Canada's economy.

June 5, 2008

Does Canada really have a cold?

There is a saying that when the U.S. economy sneezes, the Canadian economy catches a cold.

June 4, 2008

Canada's retail sales drop below benchmark level in March

Actual year-over-year Canadian retail sales (+4.6%) in March 2008 dropped below +5.0% for the first time since last August.

June 3, 2008

Outlook for non-residential investment continues to deteriorate in 2008

In first-quarter 2008, operating profits of Canadian corporations fell by 1.1% following a slightly smaller 0.9% decline in fourth-quarter 2007. There were three key contributors to this first-quarter weakness: